[z] means the paper is mentioned in the write-up of Lecture z.
Citation Statistics (a critique) by Robert Adler et al.
Streaky hitting in baseball by Jim Albert.
Stochastic Models and Descriptive Statistics for Phylogenetic Trees by David Aldous. (another location).
Probability models on horse-race outcomes by Mukhtar Ali.
On options and epidemics by Ian Ayres.
A comparative analysis of influenza vaccination programs by S. Bansal and B. Pourbohloul and L. A. Meyers. [9].
In-season prediction of batting averages: A field test of empirical Bayes and Bayes methodologies by Lawrence D. Brown.
Euthanizing the Value of a Statistical Life by Trudy Ann Cameron. [5].
The Belief in Good Luck Scale by Peter R. Darke and Jonathan L. Freedman.
Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google by Bo Cowgill and Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz.
Life, chance and life chances by Lorraine Daston.
Evolution of direct reciprocity under uncertainty can explain human generosity in one-shot encounters by Andrew W. Delton and Max M. Krasnow and Leda Cosmides and John Tooby. (extra material).
Unifying Practical Uncertainty Representations by Sebastien Destercke and Didier Dubois and Eric Chojnacki.
Dynamical bias in the coin toss by Persi Diaconis et al. [8].
Analysis of casino shelf shuffling machines by Persi Diaconis et al. [6].
Comparing information without leaking it by Ronald Fagin and Moni Naor and Peter Winkler.
Market Risk Premium used in 2010 by Analysts and Companies: a survey with 2,400 answers by Pablo Fernandez and Javier del Campo.
(Philosophy of) Probability by Branden Fitelson, Alan Hajek, and Ned Hall.
What is the probability your vote will make a difference? by Andrew Gelman and Nate Silver and Aaron Edlin.
Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics by Gerd Gigerenzer et al.
Modelling football match results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting by John Goddard and Ioannis Asimakopoulos.
Self-enforcing strategies to deter free-riding in the climate change mitigation game and other repeated public good games by Jobst Heitzig, Kai Lessmann, and Yong Zou.
Amazon book reviews by Robert Huang.
Evolutionary cycles of cooperation and defection by Lorens A. Imhof, Drew Fudenberg and Martin A. Nowak.
Social Networks and the Diffusion of Economic Behavior by Matthew O. Jackson and Leeat Yariv.
Ten Thousand Wedges: Biodiversity, Natural Selection and Random Change by Steve Jones. [10].
What are the open problems in Bayesian statistics? by Michael Jordan.
Predicting the future (1993) by Kevin Kelly and Brian Eno.
Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets? by Steven D. Levitt.
Reading About the Financial Crisis: A 21-Book Review by Andrew W. Lo.
The World Economy by Angus Madison. A huge compendium of historical data.
Physics for Future Presidents by Richard Muller. This is not the book but his article about his Berkeley course. [5].
The dawning of the age of stochasticity by David Mumford.
Future Global Shocks by the OECD (2011).
The statistical laws of popularity: universal properties of the box-office dynamics of motion pictures by Raj Kumar Pan and Sitabhra Sinha.
review by David Steinsaltz of the book The Quants by Scott Patterson.
Global Catastrophic Risks (book introduction) by Martin J. Rees and Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic.
The psychology and philosophy of luck by D. Pritchard and M. Smith.
The psychology of the near miss by R.L. Reid.
Dynamic Models of Segregation by Thomas C. Schelling.
Confidence, Consensus and the Uncertainty Cops: Tackling Risk Management in Climate Change by Stephen Schneider.
Sudden Infant Death or Murder? A Royal Confusion About Probabilities by Neven Sesardic.
Visual Analysis of Large Heterogeneous Social Networks by Semantic and Structural Abstraction by Zeqian Shen, Kwan-liu Ma, and Tina Eliassi-Rad.
To Explain or to Predict? by Galit Shmueli.
Lucky Names: Demography, Surnames and Chance by Nadav Shnerb, Yossi Maruvka and David Kessler.
Bacon sandwiches and middle-class drinkers: the risk of communicating risk by David Spiegelhalter.
A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores by Hal S. Stern
Precautions and nature by Cass Sunstein.
The ethics of uncertainty by Christof Tannert, Horst-Dietrich Elvers and Burkhard Jandrig.
Music and Probability (book) by David Temperley.
Mutual fund ratings and future performance from Vanguard.
Irrational Thinking Among Slot Machine Players by Michael B. Walker.
Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball by Justin Wolfers.
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz.
Global Risks 2011 by World Economic Forum.
Social consensus through the influence of committed minorities by J.Xie et al.
Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks by Eliezer Yudkowsky.
Learning to live with not-so-efficient markets by Luigi Zingales. [4].
Can Random Coin Flips Speed Up a Computer? by David Zuckerman.